2010 Long Island's Changing Population
U.S. Census population estimates 2008 indicate that Long Island’s population declined slightly between 2007 and 2008, following three years of slow growth.
Why is this important?
The level of population growth is a fundamental benchmark of how attractive Long Island is as a place to live. New residents require more housing and services, but can also add to the vibrancy of growing communities, increase sales for local businesses and provide additional tax revenues. Increasing diversity can provide a cultural richness that many people value, but can also add to social tensions. In addition, some economists have found that workforce diversity leads to a stronger regional economy.
How are we doing?
Population trends for 2008 are difficult to interpret for two reasons. First, it was a year of transition as Long Island and the rest of the metropolitan area caught up with recession that had already taken hold in the rest of the nation. Also, 2008 was the first year since Nassau and Suffolk counties successfully challenged the Census estimates for 2001-2007. Population numbers for those years were revised higher, so it is not clear how much of the change from 2007 to 2008 reflects a difference in methodology.
For the Island as a whole, population declined by less than a thousand persons in 2008. Nassau’s population declined by an estimated 1,436 while Suffolk increased by 492. This continued a trend in which growth had slowed markedly in recent years. While population grew by an average of 24,000 per year from 2000-2004, it slowed to an average of 3,000 per year from 2004-2007.
Compared to other parts of the tri-state metropolitan area, Long Island’s population has grown faster than northern New Jersey and southwestern Connecticut over the last 8 years. However, the Island’s 4.0% growth was slightly less than the 4.4% growth in New York City and 4.7% in the Hudson Valley suburbs north of the city.
Age Distribution
The aging of Long Island’s population continued in 2008, as persons aged 55 and older increased from 26.0% to 26.6%. By comparison, person over 55 in the United States increased from 23.4% to 23.9%. Since 2000, Long Islanders in the age group grew by 21%, the fastest growth of any age group. This trend should continue in the future as the large Baby Boom population continues to age and as life expectancies continue to increase.
Young adults, those 25-34, increased slightly from 9.8% of Long Island’s population in 2007 to 10.0% in 2008. This is the first time in at least 8 years that this percentage has not declined. From 2000-2008, those 25-34 declined from 12.8% to 10.0%. In the U.S., the share for this age group had a much smaller decline, from 14.2% to 13.5%. This age cohort should increase in future years due to an increase in birth rates following the 1974-1983 decade in which current 25-34 year-olds were born. However, whether this occurs, and to what degree, will depend on the availability of employment opportunities and suitable housing options for young adults beginning their careers and families.
Race and Ethnicity
Hispanics continued to increase as a share of Long Island’s population in 2008. Hispanics increased from 12.9% of the population in 2007 to 13.3%, up from 10.3% in 2000. The share of African-Americans was stable at 8.8% in both 2007 and 2008, but an increase from 8.1% in 2000. The Asian share of the population declined slightly last year, but still increased from 3.5% in 2000 to 5.0% in 2008. The non-Hispanic white population declined from 76.4% to 71.1%. All of these are long-standing trends. One of the biggest unknowns moving forward is how changes in the global economy might affect future immigration.
